One solid, if awkwardly shaped, fact that stands out from the surging national certainty — and its backwash — that Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will win the presidency Sunday. That fact is that few of those citizens voting for Peña Nieto seem to have any clear, certain idea of what the new president will do with the party shaped by a dictator, General Plutarco Elias Calles, in 1929, as an autocratic instrument of a military/business elite.
Even to ardent supporters, that party at this moment seems a little slippery. For most of the party’s history its leaders have courted such ambiguity. PRI presidents and their spear carriers have tended to vehemently stake out half a dozen contradictory positions, grin triumphantly, and then act in a crowd of contrary ways. Calles originally, and noisily, baptized this political organization “The Party of the Mexican Revolution” (PMR). A bit later it was renamed the National Revolutionary Party. Finally, in 1946, the political jefes running the country chose today’s (fittingly) oxymoronic appellation.
Because the PRI ruled Mexico — corruptly and brutally most of the time — for 71 consecutive years, its unpleasant political, social and economic habits apparently have become Mexico’s permanent political norm. Clearly in state and village squares and ayuntamientos (city halls), the outgoing pro-church, pro-business National Action Party proved this to be dismayingly true.
And just as certainly, Peña Nieto seems as if he, himself, has no clear idea exactly what he will do once he’s sworn in December 1. The grinning, waving, stiffly coiffed and rhetorically unimaginative Enrique Peña Nieto, and his cheering supporters, featuring throngs of charmed middle-aged women, have very little to do with solving Mexico’s many problems. One speaks here of the educational and economic abyss — the 50 percent of the population that is struggling cover the week’s basic expenses. And of course the King Kong of cartel violence standing in the corner, today seldom leaving the Mexican mind untouched with fear. As Peña Nieto pretends he’s just re-created the PRI, his audiences are thinking in a hushed, desperate crease in their minds: “If they don’t kidnap or kill my family or me, this new guy can do anything he wants.”But not everyone is enamored, not even all those among the throngs of believers in political miracles. A doubt resides that Peña Nieto really has re-invented PRI, stripping it of an abundance of abominable old habits of oppressive rule.
As the Yo Soy 132 student protests have reminded Mexican society, Peña Nieto and the PRI bring considerable baggage with them. The ten states where the PRI has never lost power are assessed as among the most violent, underdeveloped and corrupt in the Republic. There, as one legal scholar has pointed out, “... democratic transition and accountability are exotic concepts,” and “local governments rule like feudal lords.” These include Veracruz, which is one of the most dangerous places in the world for journalists. Which is not surprising for a party that has always ruled behind a veil of secrecy and lies, and thus has always been uncomfortable with the democratic idea of transparency. The PRI states are fat with such habits.
But more piquant is the little discussed load of unbecoming history Peña Nieto hauls into the presidency. Generally, this was accumulated during his six years as governor of the State of Mexico, which abuts Mexico City. Journalists, legal experts, academicians, and, of course, the students — and recently, quite noticeably, the Guardian newspaper of London — have reams of records as a memoir of this history. Under his governorship, “homicides and poverty have skyrocketed, and targeted ‘femicidies’ (killing of women) became common,” according to one legal analyst.
A study by scholar Guadalupe Hernandez uncovered that millions of government “social spending” went unaccounted for while Peña Nieto was governor. Most likely it funded his lavish early presidential campaigning, the report says. At the same time, independent civil society groups assess the state’s place at the bottom in competitiveness and tops in corruption. According to insiders, many influential people back Peña Nieto not because they believe he will make a good president. but because the PRI’s return will protect them financially.
One analyst quoted “a prominent Mexican businessman with close ties to the PRI as saying, ‘Who is going to move the people with the money? Peña Nieto will.’” Of course that isn’t what Mexico needs. “Already, Mexico is one of the most unequal societies on the planet. Only ten families control ten percent of Mexico’s gross national product.
The Yo Soy 132 movement, which came about when Peña Nieto went to the Jesuit Ibero-American University in Mexico City, and was roughly reminded by students — who called him “assassin” — of his poor civil rights record as governor of the State of Mexico. Peña Nieto’s police forces had savagely attacked protesters in 2006 in the city of San Salvador Atenco. Peña Nieto tried to defend his actions by arguing he was merely maintaining law and order. That flimsy response angered the students who chased him into a bathroom and then off campus. Televisa, Mexico’s richest, most powerful network, has always been an ally of the PRI, even in its worst days. It created false news reports in defense of the government when, on October 12, 1968, soldiers and police killed hundreds of students and allies in what is infamously known in Mexican history as “The Tlatelolco Massacre.”
Presently, Televisa slavishly backs Peña Nieto. And it rushed to his aid, delivering not news, but an accusation, declaring that the Ibero students were professional agitators, not students, and that they were working for Peña Nieto’s opponents.
Swiftly, 131 Ibero students uploaded a video on YouTube showing their university IDs, and condemning the PRI and Televisa for manipulating information. This was immediately followed by a video showing scores of students from other private and public universities supporting their 131 Ibero peers. The video quickly went viral.
The incident demonstrated to young people the willingness of the “establishment” to use the Ibero incident to try to simultaneously manipulate national politics and discredit the students.
While the student movement is reportedly growing, it has worked to maintain its political neutrality — though it’s clearly anti-Peña Nieto. The movement is not large enough to defeat the PRI at the polls. But it clearly has joined the victims of the government/cartel war as a force gaining in power, and is ready to use that force for “social accountability,” something the PRI loathes.
As Guillermo Trejo, assistant professor of political science at Duke University, notes,” In a country where democratic institutions prevent rather than facilitate electoral accountability, social pressure from below has now become a crucial means to keep political elites in check.” Here, the political elites and the mainstream media constantly work to thwart citizens‘ voices, Trejo and a wide assortment of academicians, journalists, political analysts and intellectuals agree. The “sound and fury” of the Mexican street have “become a beam of hope” of an awakening core of truly politically aware citizens, skeptical not only of mainstream media and the nation’s political parties, but the entire established power structure of the Republic. Which, especially for those students attending government public schools, means a failing school system run by a government-supported corrupt union dictatorship.
Could it be that things are changing? Much of that hope depends on the attention span of the presently energized students — and how Peña Nieto deals with the drug cartels. The latter is veiled in purposeful secrecy by the PRI candidate and his “dinosauric” patrons. Change perhaps. But it’s going to be a difficult, demanding road.