In the words of some opinion makers, presidential frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto is little more than a vapid frontman for a reinvigorated but still largely untrustworthy political machine unable to shed its decades-old modus operandi based on favor and graft.
Recent reports of former Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) governors amassing luxurious properties in the United States should make us wary of the party’s over-hyped “reformed” image but it would be shallow to sell short the opportunity that 44-year-old Peña Nieto may have to bring the nation closer together at an important moment in its history.
The PRI never had, nor will have an ideological platform. Foreign journalists like to describe the party as “centrist” but even that label is misleading. Formed in the aftermath of the 1910-1920 civil war, the PRI “institutionalized” the Revolution’s gains and functioned as an authoritarian but generally stabilizing force for the nation. It has wavered from left to right, from the socialist-leaning late 1930s under president Lazaro Cardenas, to the neo-liberalism of the 1990s under presidents Carlos Salinas de Gortari and Ernesto Zedillo.
Many high-minded citizens in Mexico will be wary of the type of characters who may get to fill official positions if the PRI is returned to power after more than a decade in opposition. But as two successive PAN presidential administrations and several PRD state governments have proved, corruption in this country is endemic and not the exclusive domain of one political party.
While it would be fair to say the PAN is a more democratic and principled party than the PRI, an inevitable fatigue has set in after 12 years of PAN rule, effectively leaving Mexicans with two choices in the 2012 presidential election: the telegenic Peña Nieto, or the burnt-out populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who was primed to lead Mexico six years ago after the Vicente Fox debacle but today has less to offer a nation needing creative, 21st century answers to 21st century problems. Unless Lopez Obrador can somehow transform himself overnight into Brazil’s Lula da Silva, he would face six years of confrontation with powerful vested interests (broadcasters, the private sector, the church, a PRI/PAN dominated Congress, Wall Street, Washington, etcetera). His fanciful promise to create 1.2 million jobs a year mostly through the regeneration of the domestic economy is one of many reasons why the formulaic AMLO, as Lopez Obrador is often referred to, is as uninspiring to voters as the PAN’s insipid Josefina Vazquez Mota, whose use of the epithet “different” in her advertising can only allude to her gender, since she has done nothing to distinguish herself from the administration of President Felipe Calderon.With election day one week away, Peña Nieto is having a rough ride home – as any front-running presidential candidate should expect. But whereas in other nations the final surge of campaign broadsides would mostly center on the unsuitability of his economic, social or foreign policies, the opprobrium that Peña Nieto is having to fend off mostly concerns the latent fear of the PRI’s return to power.
A major reason why this criticism doesn’t seem to be sticking to Peña Nieto (polls give him an unassailable lead, see page one) is because much of it is coming from an unexpected source: an energized, angry youth movement, urban in nature and with lightning quick reactions – fueled by the instantaneous communications revolution – but essentially rudderless and apparently ideologically bankrupt. The core of Peña Nieto’s vote – motivated unionized workers in the 23 states governed by the PRI – should hold strong. Youth may account for 8.5 million votes but this segment will also be the biggest abstainers.
If the election were to be decided on policy proposals alone, Peña Nieto would probably win hands down. A self-proclaimed efficient administrator, he has by far the most developed platform, even if many of his most laudable ideas are somewhat nebulous. These include creating one million jobs annually (this year the country is on course for half that figure), getting 45 percent of students enrolled into higher education and eradicating food poverty.
Peña Nieto would also take a slightly different approach to Calderon’s debilitating battle with the drug cartels, although he has yet to commit himself to removing soldiers from the streets. He says he wants to put more emphasis on tackling crimes – murder, kidnapping, extortion, robbery – rather than go after the drug lords and seize tons and tons of drugs in spectacular busts. Calderon may have arrested truck-loads of drug traffickers but less than 15 percent of the nation’s violent crimes have been solved under his watch.
Peña Nieto also wants to professionalize the nation’s police forces by setting up regional academies, and implement a “National Strategy Against Violence” to reduce homicides and kidnappings by 50 percent.
One of his most ambitious proposals would be to create a universal social security system (Sistema de Seguridad Social Universal) that would include free medical attention for all – available at any public hospital – as well as unemployment insurance and old-age pensions. The bureaucratic complexity of this is enormous, as it would require amalgamating all the different health services (IMSS, ISSSTE, Seguro Popular) into one.
Peña Nieto promises to expand social welfare programs such as Oportunidades and order the Development Bank to increase loans for start-up businesses and small enterprises. He would strive for greater private sector participation in state-owned oil monopoly Pemex (but without full privatization), introduce full-time schools throughout the country, set up a national anti-corruption institute and a fund to develop urgent tourist infrastructure.
Yes, we should be skeptical about a surfeit of promises: Fox swept to power on a national dream of wholesale change that included vows to fix the Zapatista crisis in 15 minutes, immigration deals with the United States and bringing corruption to an end. After six years he had achieved almost nothing, unable to build consensus with the opposition and obstructed at every hurdle by an obstinate, multi-party Congress.
If Peña Nieto dons the presidential sash on December 1, little will change for the average Mexican either one day, one week or one month later. The standard of living of the country’s extremely poor – 15 percent of the total population – will be the same. The rich will still be rich and avoid paying high taxes. Drug gangs will still be ordering hits on each other. Recent graduates will still struggle to find employment. The unchanged, outdated labor laws will still offer no incentive to employers to create new jobs.
But Peña Nieto will have six years to make an impact and implement important changes. Regardless of his party’s historical trajectory and their personal political expressions, only the ungracious would not wish him success.