Contrary to some negative buzz on the local grapevine, leading lakeside area realtors see positive signs of stability and future growth in their business sector.
“There are a lot of unfounded urban myths floating around,” says Absolut Fenix broker Dixie Nicholson, recently instated as president of the Chapala Association of Realtors (CAR).
She finds no evidence that expat homeowners are slashing prices to unload property and move on to greener pastures or that lakeside has developed a black eye among potential buyers, despite a three-year tsunami of bad news spread worldwide concerning swine flu, the drug war and political upheaval in Mexico. In fact, she qualifies July as one of the best months for her firm this year and as good as it’s been since the market hit a low in 2009.
The lakeside real estate market took a dive in the wake of the housing bubble and financial crisis that rocked the U.S. economy in 2007-2008, Nicholson observes. “Lots of buyers were forced to cancel deals that were in progress. Some foreign residents had to bail out of the area to go back to work.”
She is confident that the market trend is now on the verge of a strong turn around. “This area has huge appeal for the one million baby boomers who are retiring every year. We’re very optimistic about the future.”
As CAR president, Nicholson is keen to beef up public perception of her colleagues. “Many sellers seem to have little faith in local real estate agents. We are trained, experienced professionals. We know what we’re doing.”She explains that CAR keeps very detailed statistics to keep a thumb on market trends, boasting, “There is no other place in Mexico where realtors work with this kind of solid information.”
Nicolson then deferred to Hernandez Realty Group sales associate Lloyd Riggs, recognized as CAR’s stats wonk for his 15-year track record in following the numbers. He registers sales numbers, prices, property movements, identity of buyers by nationality and other data with a complete breakdown by residential area.
As an example of the value of statistics, he points to accuracy in pricing policy. Listing agents draw up a complete survey of every property going up for sale and then process the data through an evaluation system to determine fair market value. “This allows us to give the seller a realistic selling price based on actual sales in the specific location.” The system works effectively, as evidenced by indicators showing that figures on final sales consistently run about 10 percent under asking prices.
Riggs views the number of property turn-overs and U.S. dollar sales volume for the first seven months of 2012 on a rough par with last year. His stats show fewer homes and lots on the market now than one year ago, down from a total of 776 in June 2011 to 683 in June 2012. The area’s top five real estate agencies in terms of sales volume have maintained their ranking over the past several years, each holding 80 to 100 listings at any one time.
U.S. citizens continue holding the lead among buyers, representing over 70 percent of all sales. Mexican clientele has been on a steady rise, currently up to about a 25 per cent share. Canadians and other foreign nationals account for only a tiny fraction, showing a preference for rental abodes rather than ownership.
According to Riggs, Riberas del Pilar stands out as the current real estate hotspot, with easy-access location, availability and reasonable prices noted as the principal appeal factors.
With sales during the first semester of this year exceeding original expectations, Nicholson and Riggs speak for the entire lakeside real estate industry in holding a bright outlook on the months and years to come.