In a prelude to the 2013 rainy season, early storms have brought a tad of relief to a thirsty Lake Chapala, keeping its dwindling water line on an even keel throughout the past week.
The National Water Commision (Conagua) reported 21.3 millimeters of rainfall accumulated at its Chapala weather station on May 27, the top figure registered anywhere in Jalisco up to that date.
The rainy season typically kicks in around June 13 which, according to local lore, coincides with festivities honoring Saint Anthony of Padua in San Antonio Tlayacapan.
From a more scientific perspective, Angel Meulenert Peña at the University of Guadalajara’s Astronomy and Meteorology Institute points to the same date as the anticipated gateway for precipitation that will prevail over the summer months. He predicts average rainfall for the region this season, surpassing scant measurements of the past two years and presumably translating into more favorable conditions for Lake Chapala.
Conagua data for May 28 showed Chapala with a volume of 2.85 billion cubic meters of water (2,858 Mm3), equivalent to 36.19 percent full capacity, covering 94,521 hectares (ha.) of the lake bed. It has dropped 1.4 meters in elevation and 1,393 Mm3 in volume since September 19 of last year, after gaining a scant 49 centimeters and 509 Mm3 during the 2012 rainy season. The previous year was even worse, with a dismal recuperation of 24 centimeters in elevation and 262Mm3 in volume.
In late June of 2002 Lake Chapala hit its second lowest statistical record since 1900, registering just 14.4 percent capacity with 1,138 Mm3 of water extended over a surface area of 71,562 ha. However, it bounced back dramatically the following year thanks to an abundant and prolonged rainy season, recovering 2,964 Mm3 in volume and rising 3.2 meters to reach 54 percent capacity and extend over a 102,789 ha. surface area.
The rare phenomenon closely mirrored the pattern of 1955 when the lake fell to 12 percent capacity – just under 954 Mm3 covering 67,000 ha. – on July 1. Over the ensuing five months it rose 3.4 meters with an astonishing 2,973 Mm3 gain in volume, coming up to the 50 percent full mark and a 103,532 ha. spread.
Chapala tour boat operators say they remain optimistic that the Chapala pier will once again be surrounded by water at summer’s end. Their real worry is that the dire panorama of 2002 will reappear next year unless substantial rains feed the Lerma-Chapala watershed over the coming months.