While pilgrims gather to raise hopeful prayers at the edge of Lake Chapala, weather watchers are keeping their fingers crossed for a turnaround to the sluggish start of this year’s rainy season.
Meteorologists predict an atypical rainfall pattern in Jalisco through the summer and fall months due to drought conditions apparently provoked by El Niño and La Niña-related effects on the weather over the past year - effects further aggravated by climate change. Lake Chapala and local farmers will likely suffer negative impact as a consequence.
Ángel Meulenert, a specialist at the University of Guadalajara’s Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology (IAM), attributes the late onset of the regular rains to the combined effects of those phenomena.
“There has been a delay in the arrival of tropical disturbances that are among the elements that bring more rain to the region. Some of them have turned into cyclones that have taken trajectories not benefiting the state. Far from giving us moisture, they have taken it away,” he told the Guadalajara daily Mural this week.
The IAM researcher noted that the influence of La Niña early this year caused destabilization of the atmosphere that brought on unusually dry months. After that, the Pacific Ocean entered a neutral state without storm activity, delaying the normal commencement of the rainy season.
While anticipating more consistently abundant rainfall during July and October, he forecasts sporadic and below average precipitation in the rest of the wet period.
According to official figures, the lake lost more than a billion cubic meters of water between January 1 and the first day of summer, primarily due to an evaporation rate that intensified during April and May. On June 20, it was standing at just over 48 percent capacity, compared to 61.5 percent at the start of the year.
The loss of water volume is roughly equivalent to the lake’s gain during the previous rainy season, and about seven times the extraction allotment authorized to feed the Guadalajara metro area.
Scant rainfall during June has put the lakeshore region’s agricultural sector at risk of heavy financial losses in the prime growing seasons. Many farmers who planted their fields early last month will have to turn over the earth and re-seed before the end of July and hope for sufficient rain to raise crops with minimal detriment to income from seasonal product sales.