An opinion poll released May 31 by the Reforma newspaper chain shows leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador just four percentage points behind frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto.
These astonishing results throw an entirely new spin on a campaign entering its final month and ahead of a crucial debate scheduled June 10 in Guadalajara.
The findings of the latest poll are controversial and will be hotly disputed. Only a week earlier, a Mitofsky poll gave Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) a lead of just under 14 percent over Lopez Obrador, who represents the Movimiento Progresista, a coalition of three left-wing parties (PRD, PT and Movimiento Ciudadano). A May 30 survey tracking voter tendencies sponsored by the Milenio media group put Peña Nieto 15 points ahead of Lopez Obrador. The gap, however, closed to around 11 percent when undecided voters (20 percent), were thrown into the mix.
There is no doubt Pena Nieto’s support has been dropping steadily since thousands of young people took to the streets this month to protest the possible return to power of the PRI, which ruled Mexico for 71 years, from 1929 to 2000.
The Reforma poll, taken on May 24 and 27, interviewed 1,515 potential voters and had a magian of error of 2.9 percent. It put Peña Nieto on 38 percent, with Lopez Obrador now close on his heels at 34 percent.
Josefina Vazquez Mota of the National Action Party (PAN) came in at 23 percent and Gabriel Quadri of the New Alliance Party (PANAL) registered five percent.
The previous poll released by Reforma on April 25 saw Peña Nieto way ahead with 42 percent, followed by Vazquez Mota with 29 percent and Lopez Obrador with 27 percent.
Peña Nieto’s campaign team quickly sent out a press release stating that analysis of seven separate polls (including Reforma’s) gave their candidate an average lead of 16 points over Lopez Obrador.
Reforma’s poll results will make the June 10 televised debate even more important. A strong performance by Lopez Obrador could close the gap further and turn the July 1 election into another cliffhanger.
Six years ago, the left-wing populist ran the PAN’s Felipe Calderon right to the wire, losing by less than one percent of the vote.