It’s being hawked as the most defining non-presidential election in Mexico this century.
Political analysts agree that the outcome of the Sunday, June 4 gubernatorial election in Estado de Mexico, the nation’s most populous state, is a bellwether for next year’s presidential election, and could set the stage for a bruising campaign pitting the ruling Partido Institucional Revolutionario (PRI) against its longtime nemesis, political maverick Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Estado de Mexico has been a bastion of power for the PRI ever since the party was forged from the remnants of the 1910-1920 Mexican Revolution. Several presidents have emerged from this state enveloping a large part of the capital, including current incumbent Enrique Peña Nieto, also a former governor.
Such are the close ties between the cadre of elite priistas in Estado de Mexico that Alfredo del Mazo, the party’s candidate this year, is actually Peña Nieto’s cousin.
In previous years, anything other than a comfortable victory for the PRI would have been unthinkable.
But Peña Nieto has seen his popularity plummet to record lows, with his presidency plagued by frequent missteps, allegations of corruption and a failure to address rampant crime.
Once a shoo-in, Estado de Mexico has turned into a referendum on the president’s performance and is looking increasingly fragile for the PRI.
As campaigning ended Wednesday, several reputable polls gave Delfina Gomez of the left-wing Morena party a lead of between one and four percentage points over Del Mazo, with the candidates of the National Action Party (PAN) and Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) trailing some way behind. Other polls, including one from the financial journal El Financiero, put Del Mazo slightly ahead.
Del Mazo has run a polished campaign with the help of the PRI’s well-oiled electoral machinery and is outspending Gomez by a two-to-one margin. In particular, he has targeted middle- and working-class women, offering them a ”pink salary,” a proposed monthly payment for homemakers. His opponents have accused Del Mazo and the PRI of “buying votes” and making promises that he will be unable to finance.
Gomez, a 54-year-old teacher, has relied on her working-class roots, an aura of incorruptibility and, of course, the support of her mentor Lopez Obrador, the founder of Morena and two-time presidential candidate.
The mood in Estado de Mexico, which accounts for 13 percent of the country’s electorate, has been tense for many months. Crime and violence have exploded and are easily the chief issues of the campaign. Gomez has been at pains to denounce the huge spike in gender violence: 550 women and girls were killed between January 2015 and June 2016, and 2,895 were registered as disappeared, according to the Citizen’s Observatory Against Gender Violence. In addition, anti-government sentiment has grown since the unpopular gasoline price hikes at the beginning of the year, and many political observers say there has never been a better time for opposition parties to take advantage and end the PRI’s hegemony in the state.
But while all the candidates have vowed to make the state safer, none has provided a credible proposal of how this might be achieved. Despite her populist appeal, doubts have been raised about Gomez’s qualifications for the job. Del Mazo has pounced on her lack of experience, highlighting her ill-preparedness at every campaign stop he makes.
The consequences of a Gomez victory are enormous. Principally, some analysts suggest, it would place Lopez Obrador in pole position for 2018 and set off a major internal battle for power within the PRI. Not only would Peña Nieto’s presidency be weakened, but his ability to influence next year’s election would be radically reduced. Historically, Mexican presidents have been instrumental in choosing their successors.
A win for Gomez could also significantly change Mexico’s relationship with the United States. The increased possibility of Lopez Obrador – fiercely critical of U.S. policy throughout his political career – assuming the Mexican presidency will spook the Trump administration. That might force both the United States and this country to quickly conclude the Nafta renegotiation process – due to begin in August – to avoid the theme becoming a central focus of the presidential election campaign.
As always in Mexico, the shadow of fraud will hang over Sunday’s election. Lopez Obrador and Morena have already cast suspicions on the fairness of the process, claiming the PRI is hatching a massive – and illegal – plan to ensure the vote goes its way.
Should the PRI retain Estado de Mexico, the aftermath is unlikely to be business as normal. In keeping with his usual modus operandi, Lopez Obrador will probably cry foul while arguing that the closeness of the result makes him frontrunner to be the nation’s next president. Even a rejuvenated PRI may find it tough stopping the AMLO juggernaut.
Gubernatorial elections are also being held June 4 in Coahuila and Nayarit, both states currently governed by the PRI.