A judge in New York Wednesday sentenced Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman to life in prison, plus 30 years, for importing billions of dollars’ worth of narcotics into the United States over a period of almost 30 years.
While bringing the notorious kingpin to justice is viewed as a success by U.S. authorities, the harsh reality is that it changes little in the “war on drugs” – for either Mexico or the United States.
Regardless of whether “El Chapo” Guzman rots away the rest of his life in virtual solitary confinement in a maximum security prison, the violence perpetrated by cartels looking to dominate the trafficking trade in Mexico will carry on as usual, while drugs will continue to flow freely into the United States.
According to Carlos Rodríguez Ulloa, an expert in Mexican security matters and a member of the Colectivo de Análisis de la Seguridad con Democracia, the powerful Sinaloa Cartel that Guzman ran for nearly three decades is likely to be most affected by the ongoing turf war that has been raging ever since the kingpin’s arrest in January 2016.
At that moment, Rodríguez says, the door opened for the nascent Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) to flex its muscles. Just over three years later, U.S. authorities consider the CJNG to be the most powerful and violent cartel in Mexico.
In a recent article, Rodríguez notes that the CJNG is consolidating its power by controlling the most profitable sectors of the trafficking market, such as amphetamines and designer drugs. And while also involved in the smuggling of cocaine and marijuana, as well as other criminal ventures such as gasoline pipeline theft, the CJNG has its eyes firmly set on the future, such as branching out into illicitly produced fentanyl and other popular synthetic opioids, Rodríguez says.
The CJNG has also sought to expand its operations by forming alliances with offshoots of once powerful organizations in northern Mexico, such as the Gulf Cartel and Zetas.
According to Rodríguez, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, the current leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, has created a special force called “Los Demonios” to confront and “destabilize” the CJNG in key areas of the country, most notably in its Guadalajara stronghold, where narcotics-related violence has peaked in recent months with multiple slayings reported on a daily basis.
On either side of the border, few people have any illusions that spending millions of dollars going after drug capos will make any significant dent in the drug trade.
“If the demand for drugs persists, suppliers will continue to thrive, no matter if Guzman is imprisoned. It doesn’t matter if you lock up a particular supplier,” Jeffery Miron, the author of a report entitled “The Budgetary Implications of Drug Prohibition,” told CBS news.
And in Mexico, most experts in security matters have little faith in President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s belief that his new initiatives, which include the formation of a National Guard and financial giveaways to encourage poor Mexicans away from a life of crime, will reduce cartel violence in any way.