According to Mexican folk wisdom, this week’s rash of soggy weather hold clues for predicting climatic conditions that will prevail over the coming months of 2013.
In the common vernacular, a stretch of rainy days that occur during winter may be labeled as cabañuelas, translated loosely as little huts – appropriate places to take refuge when the skies open. In a broader sense, the term refers to an ancient method of forecasting weather conditions that has been handed down through generations of country folk throughout Latin America. It’s an empirical system of tracking clouds, winds, precipitation and other signs that appear day by day during January to comprise something like an oral farmer’s almanac for the remainder of the year.
In Mexico, observations made between January 1 and 12 are called cabañuelas de ida, with each date corresponding to one month as it falls in chronological order. Cabañuelas de vuelta run from January 13 through 24, following each month in reverse order, December to January.From there on the system gets more complex. From January 25 through 30, each day is divided into two 12-hour periods that are linked to the months in ascending order – i.e. January 25, midnight to noon, relates to the first month of the year, while the second half of the day relates to February, and so forth. On January 31 each two-hour period links to a single month, starting at midnight and going in ascending order.
For example, the general weather scheme anticipated for the month of June would be based on conditions observed on January 6, January 19, January 27 between noon and midnight, and January 31 from 10 a.m. to noon. If rain prevails during those periods, the farmer takes into account expectations of plentiful precipitation to time the plowing of his fields and planting summer crops. Hot, dry weather observed in June’s cabañuela slots would prompt different farming tactics.
Similar methods for prognosticating weather have been practiced around world since the earliest periods of human civilization. References to such customs appear in historical accounts of Babylonia and Mexico’s Maya culture, as well as the writings of Aristotle. The preferred time frame for calculating predictions varies at different points of the planet. In Spain las cabañuelas are recorded during August.
Mexican campesinos who cling to the beliefs and traditions of their forefathers are keeping a close eye on Mother Nature as 2013 gets off to a wet and chilly start. Sceptics will more likely rely on television or Internet reports to keep abreast of imminent weather conditions. Either way, it can’t hurt to keep your umbrellas and long johns handy.