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OPINION: Will Mexican gov’t prove to be right, pay the price, or get a lucky break?

How quickly is the virus actually spreading in Mexico? Due to painfully slow testing, the true number of cases here is almost certainly much higher than official statistics, which over the past week have risen at the non-alarming rate of around 60-70 a day.

Only this week did the federal government health spokesperson admit that the virus was spreading within the community, thus triggering “phase two” of its emergency response, banning mass events, implementing voluntary social distancing measures, but allowing industry, businesses and restaurants to stay open. (Many state governors have taken stricter measures.)

Although President Manuel Lopez Obrador has defended his “relaxed” attitude to the epidemic and the federal government’s “balanced” response to prevent a weak economy from going into a tailspin, there is no question a rapid spike in cases would put the public health sector under severe pressure. (Multiple sources say the country has only about 2,500 intensive care beds and 5,500 ventilators.

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