Researchers from the University of Guadalajara estimate that the real number of people infected with Covid-19 in Jalisco during the pandemic is close to 1.5 million.
As of Wednesday, February 24, state health officials reported the count of confirmed cases standing at 220,145.
Mexico’s low testing capacity, which gives a high positivity rate (i.e., out of all tests conducted, the number coming back positive for Covid-19) of around 45 percent, not only gives a false understanding of the real situation, but also complicates the process of tracking the spread of the disease, experts say. Under its RADAR system, Jalisco tests more people than most other Mexican states, but still has a positivity rate of around 35 percent. Positivity rates in the United States vary from state to state, and have ranged anywhere from two to 30. The World Health Organization (WHO) advises governments that before economic reopening, rates of positivity in testing should remain at five percent or lower for at least 14 days.
In coming up with their estimate of more realistic case numbers in Jalisco, the University of Guadalajara researchers said they carried out a scientific analysis of occupational, labor and student mobility in the state.
The UdG research model estimates that 1.47 million people in Jalisco have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, which would represent 17.6 percent of the total population of the state, calculated from this year’s census total of 8.35 million.