Taking his cue from the shock decision of the United Kingdom to vote to leave the European Union, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump turned his wrath on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), saying that once in the White House he will rework the 22-year-old trilateral trade treaty to be more favorable toward the United States.
Speaking in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Trump promised to withdraw the United States from the accord if Mexico and Canada don’t agree to a renegotiation.
Not only was the real estate mogul attempting to put more distance between himself and Hilary Clinton, a consistent backer of trade treaties during her political career, but he was also tapping into an anti-globalist sentiment that proved to be a major reason why large swaths of working people in the U.K. voted to leave the EU.
In a speech that was stronger in specifics than most of his campaign speeches, Trump also vowed to introduce retaliatory tariffs on Chinese imports and nix the proposed 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a secretly negotiated treaty that has polarized public opinion, with Clinton now expressing doubts after initially supporting it.
Trump’s claim that rethinking the United States’ trade relationships with the rest of the world will “create millions of manufacturing jobs” is the message that most resonates with Bernie Sanders’ supporters, a bloc that Trump believes will switch to his side as the campaign rolls on.
Although Trump was more focused and reading from a teleprompter, his comments provoked little reaction from Republican leaders, most of whom support the U.S. trade treaties already in place, and have given their approval to the TTP.
Analysts say, if enacted, Trump’s policies could start a trade war with China and – together with mass deportations of undocumented Mexicans from the United States, as he has promised – decimate Mexico’s economy.
Trump’s latest statements on how he sees the United States’ involvement with the rest of the world coincide with the “America First” theme of his campaign, which includes building a wall at the Mexican border, banning all Muslims from entering the country and playing a lesser role in NATO affairs.
While Republican leaders are anxious for Trump to tone down his controversial foreign policy declarations, the presumptive candidate may see an opportunity to reconnect with voters – sympathizers of Sanders especially – following the U.K.’s rejection of the EU last week. Immigration, another of Trump’s favored themes, was singled out as the major concern of many British voters who, like Americans, have become tired of political elites that give the impression of only looking after their own interests, and those of their rich colleagues.
While Trump – “a very, very rich man” in his own words – cannot pretend that he does not belong to an “elite,” his populist broadsides certainly work well on the campaign stump. Whether he can get the “bump” needed to turn around polls that give Clinton a lead of six to ten points is another matter.
Presuming his candidacy is approved at the Republican Convention in Cleevland in three weeks, the tone of his acceptance speech will be crucial. Although he is unlikely to deliver the kind of “off the cuff” rallying call he has favored so much during the primary season, Trump will want to make sure that his bullish message hits home.
Again he may take heart from the United Kingdom. When the EU in/out referendum began officially on April 15, the “Remain” campaign enjoyed a 15-point lead in the polls. That evaporated in just 69 days. From the moment Trump gets up on the stage at Cleevland’s Quicken Loans Arena on July 21, there will be 110 days until the U.S. presidential election.