Should the Democratic candidate prevail in the tightly contested U.S. election, as many pundits predict, relations between Mexico and a Joe Biden administration could be “problematic,” noted Pamela Starr, a professor at the University of Southerm California, during a recent seminar organized by the Center for U.S. Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego.
Starr said Biden’s pledge to reduce the United States’ dependency on fossil fuels is vastly different from Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador’s gung-ho attitude toward hydrocarbons and desdain for renewable energy. Additionally, a Biden White House may place even greater emphasis than their predecessors on ensuring that Mexico enforces the revised labor and environmental laws written into the recently signed United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal.
Strangely, given their many ideological differences, most analysts suggested Lopez Obrador – privately at least – is hoping for a Trump victory. The Mexican president has carefully nurtured his relationship with his U.S. counterpart, massaging his ego by praising him repeatedly, and responding to his barrage of threats with measured calm.
Chiefly, he earned the respect of Trump by deploying Mexico’s armed forces to halt waves of Central American migrants heading for the U.S. border. Although some opponents say Lopez Obrador acquiesced too meekly under the threat of tariffs from Trump, others credit him with savvy politics, ensuring that the vital trade part of the relationship was not affected by constant bickering, such has often been the case in the past. (Historically, bilateral relations have usually been smoother during recent Republican presidential terms; Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton both became embroiled in heated exchanges with Mexico over issues such as trade, rights, drug trafficking, immigration and oil.)
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