All the indicators suggest that the presidential recall election (Consulta de Revocación de Mandato) scheduled for Sunday, April 10, in Mexico will result in favor of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador continuing his mandate to the conclusion of his six-year term in 2024, thus providing a significant boost for his political agenda.
The wording of the vote seems to be particularly important. Voters will be asked to choose between two options: that AMLO should “remain in office until his term ends,” or his mandate be “revoked due to a loss of confidence.” According to The Mexico Institute, a poll by El Financiero gives 63 percent support to the president remaining in office as reflected in the recall election question, even though other surveys show his overall popularity rating among Mexicans hovering around 52 percent.
AMLO has promoted the midterm recall vote as a vital step for citizen participation and democracy in Mexico. His fiercest opponents have slammed the election as an egotistical, PR exercise. Rather than participate and vote to oust AMLO, many groups have actively urged Mexicans to boycott the election, meaning that the president’s margin of victory may be even higher than predicted.
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