University of Guadalajara experts disagree with federal health authorities’ estimation that the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic will hit the metropolitan area on June 13.
“It depends on many variables. Among them the most important are the isolation measures,” said Dr. Jorge Hernández, a member of the university’s Covid-19 Situational Health Room.
Predicting exactly when the virus will reach its peak has stumped scientists in countries around the globe, and left many with egg on their faces.
Hernández said he was unaware of the model used by the Federal Health Ministry to formulate its calculation because “they have not published the variants or data they used.”
According to the UdG researcher, his team’s models suggest that with 60 percent of people obeying the social isolation requests, the maximum point of contagion is more likely to be in October, but with “a much lower intensity … that doesn’t saturate the health services, as has happened in Mexico City.”
Hernández warned that cases may spike if distancing measures are neglected. Jalisco is stepping up its economic activity from Monday, meaning that keeping acceptable social distancing in place may prove complicated.