The 2020 rainy season will start between June 9 and 15, according to predictions made by the University of Guadalajara’s Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology (IAM).
Rainfall is expected to be moderately more intense in the latter part of 2020, since scientists reckon that El Niño weather pattern will probably emerge toward the end of the year.
Precipitation in May – which does not constitute the start of the annual temporada de lluvias – was slightly above average, IAM meteorologist Martha Diana Alcocer told local media. This has meant that the dry season, up until now, has been less severe, with fewer forest fires recorded compared to 2019, she said.
El Niño creates warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, contributing to more active tropical storm seasons.
The National Water Commission (Conagua) is predicting the formation of between 15 and 18 atmospheric systems in the Pacific, of which seven or eight are likely to become tropical storms, four or five develop into category one or two hurricanes, and five into category three, four or five hurricanes.