Meteorologists at Guadalajara’s Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology (IAM) forecast above-average rainfall for the month of June.
“We estimate that rainfall will be between 20 and 40 millimeters above normal,” meteorologist Mauricio López Reyes told reporters this week.
López Reyes said the temporada de lluvias (rainy season) is expected to begin around June 8 or 9 in the Región Sur, centered on Zapotlán el Grande (Ciudad Guzmán), and will then move into the Central Region—including the Guadalajara metropolitan area, the Ciénega region (which covers Chapala and Jocotepec), and the agricultural Los Altos zone in the northeastern part of the state, which is typically drought-prone.
According to IAM specialists, the rainy season is officially considered to have begun once precipitation is recorded for three consecutive days in at least half of the institute’s meteorological stations.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reports that the number of tropical cyclones forecast for this year in both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans will be slightly higher than the climatological average, due to the neutral phase of the El Niño phenomenon.
In the Pacific, forecasts predict eight to nine tropical storms; four to five hurricanes in Categories 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale; and between four and six major hurricanes in Categories 3, 4, or 5.
Historically, the greatest number of Pacific cyclones develop in September, followed by October, although intense storms are not uncommon in July and August.