With the international news media predictably consumed by atypical political developments north of the border, it may have escaped the notice of many expats in Mexico that this country is also embroiled in a campaign season, which culminates on Sunday, June 5.
Voters in 13 states will elect 12 governors, more than 1,450 local representatives and 60 of the 100 members of the brand new Asamblea Constituyente en la Ciudad de México (Mexico City Constitutional Assembly).
Rather than a litmus test of the popularity of President Enrique Peña Nieto, these state elections will mostly be won or lost on local issues and personalities. The key issues in many of the states are the one and the same: law enforcement and financial mismanagement. Although several independent candidates will be running, none are expected to win.
Peña Nieto’s party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), leads gubernatorial races in eight states but still faces strong threats across the board.
For example, in crime- and debt-ridden Tamaulipas, the PRI is in danger of loosing the state governorship for the first time in 86 years. The current government is seen as incapable of controlling crime, and the party’s candidate, Baltazar Hinojosa Ochoa, has been accused of receiving money from the Gulf Cartel while running for mayor of Matamoros in 2002. The National Action Party (PAN) is poised to win, polls suggest.
Another key state is Veracruz, where three candidates are running neck and neck. The PRI, which has governed the state since 1929, is also in a precarious position, with outgoing governor Javier Duarte viewed as one of the most unpopular ever to hold office. Many members of his administration have been investigated for financial irregularities and embezzlement, although few actually have gone to trial. In addition, 16 journalists have been murdered in the state during his administration, and three more are missing.
Two cousins go head to head in Veracruz: Miguel Angel Yunes Linares of the PAN/PRD and the PRI’s Héctor Yunes. However, the big winner could be Morena, the party formed by former left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Polls suggest their candidate, Cuitláhuac García Jimenez, is running a close third behind the cousins. Victory for Morena in Veracruz – and in Zacatecas where their candidate David Monreal Avila leads the PRI in the polls – would be a major boost for Lopez Obrador and perhaps persuade him to have yet another crack at the presidency in 2018.
Controversy over candidates’ murky pasts has also gripped two southern states electing governors on Sunday.
In Oaxaca, reports suggest that PAN-PRD alliance candidate Jose Antonio Estefan is under investigation by the U.S. Treasury Department for banking irregularities involving US$27 million. And Carlos Joaquin Gonzalez, the PAN/PRD candidate for governor in the southern border state Quintana Roo, was recently accused of ties to organized criminal groups.
Aguascalientes and Chihuahua are other states where close races between the PRI and PAN are anticipated. In Tlaxcala, there is a statistical three-way dead heat between the PRI, PAN and the Partido Revolucionario Democratica (PRD).
Parties with comfortable leads in other states are: Durango (PRI), Hidalgo (PRI), Puebla (PAN) and Sinaloa (PRI).4