When the United States sneezes, Mexico catches a cold, ran a famous New York Times headline in December, 2008, at the height of the economic crisis.
This week, as a result of measures taken to contain the coronavirus epidemic, Goldman Sachs predicted a 34-percent plunge in U.S. GDP in the second quarter and 15-percent unemployment. Unless there is a spectacular rebound, rather than catching a cold, Mexico could be stuck in intensive care until 2023, some analysts are saying.
A slew of studies are speculating on Mexico’s predicament, as nearly all economic activity throughout the North American continent is put on hold.
The Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias (CEEY) suggests 21 million Mexicans could fall below the poverty line because of the pandemic.
The Centro de Competitividad de México (CCMX) says 77 percent of small and micro businesses could cease operations within two months.
The Guadalajara Chamber of Commerce (Canaco) is more optimistic, but still says two out of ten businesses in the metropolitan area will go under. It estimates that nine percent of employees will lose their jobs.
Please login or subscribe to view the complete article.