Let’s dismiss for a moment that just a few days ago U.S. border agents turned away the shipment of 120 tons of Jalisco-grown avocados, and stay focused on the fact American consumers have an insatiable appetite for the luscious alligator pear.
Statistics show that in 2014 folks up there gobbled up about four billion avocados, with 85 percent of them coming in from foreign countries. Since 2004, Mexico has exported 3.2 million tons of avocados to the U.S. market.
Remembering that the Trump administration has floated the idea of imposing a 20-percent import tax on Mexican goods to force this country into paying for the infamous border wall, I was interested and amused by an op-ed piece published last week by Washington Post columnist Philip Bump.
After doing some hard-headed math, he spelled out calculations of how many Mexican imports it would take to cover the bill for building the wall, based on the 12 to 15 billion dollar low-ball cost suggested by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
“What does the United States import from Mexico? Electronics, cars, fruits and vegetables, snacks. That sort of thing,” Bump wrote.
“So let’s take the humble avocado. You can buy an avocado for a few dollars at your grocery store-say, $3. A 20-percent tax on that would increase the price to $3.60. A modest but not insignificant increase.”
“That 60 cents would go to pay down the price of the wall. If we were paying for the wall with only the purchase of avocados, that would necessitate that Americans buy between 20 and 25 billion avocados … meaning that it would take six or seven years’ worth of avocado consumption for ‘Mexico’ to finish paying for the wall.”
The kicker, Bump points out, is that U.S. consumers picking up the tab for the extra cost of those avocados would really be the ones shelling out to erect the wall, not Mexico.
Looking at other Mexican export products, the journalist listed alternates for the guacamole raw material.
With the 20-percent tax hike added to the base price, he figures it would take 50 billion to 62.5 billion tins of tomato paste to pay for the wall. Or 10.8 billion to 13.5 billion Papermate pen refills. Or 10 billion to 12.5 billion six packs of Tecate beer.
The number of required units drops with the purchase of more expensive products: 104 million to 130 million Lenovo ThinkStations; 37.5 million to 46.9 million LG refrigerators; or only 2.8 million to 3.5 million of one of Trump’s favorite punching bags, the Ford Fiesta automobile.
Bump concludes his piece with a nifty quick-fix proposal. “There’s a way this could be made really easy. You know who has about $13 billion available and wants to see President Trump succeed? His cabinet. Get DeVos and McMahon and Mnuchin and Ross to buy a few million Ford Fiestas and a billion avocados or so, and – voilà! – ‘Mexico’ has paid for the wall.”
Chew on that while you wolf down guacamole during the Super Bowl broadcast.