The ruling Morena party and its allies (the Partido Verde and Partido del Trabajo) won important victories in federal Congressional races on June 2.
The alliance is expected to consolidate its majority in the 500-seat Chamber of Deputies (lower house), bringing its number of legislators above the two-thirds majority required to green-light reforms to the Mexican Constitution.
After the complex mathematical calculations of how the 200 proportional representation seats are allocated to each party, the Morena alliance is expected to have around 3xx seats in the lower chamber. However, estimates for the 128-seat Senate suggest Morena and its allies are likely to end up with 83 seats, short of a two-thirds majority in the upper chamber.
The make-up of parties in the two legislative houses is vital. Nearly 20 wide-ranging reforms left pending in Congress by President Andres Manuel López Obrador require constitutional amendments. Many of these are controversial and would severely downgrade Mexican democracy if enacted, opposition politicians and many independent analysts argue. They include having Supreme Court judges elected by popular vote (potentially comprising their independence), eliminating several independent regulatory agencies and formalizing the militarization of the National Guard police force. Other reforms, such as the prohibition of fracking and open-pit mining and a guarantee that the increase in the minimum wage can never be less than inflation, are less controversial.
Even though (virtual president-elect) Claudia Sheinbaum has backed these reforms, it is not clear whether she will try to force them through with the same vigor as López Obrador, as she may wish to start her six-year period of office on a more harmonious note, distancing herself from the conflictive approach that has often characterized AMLO’s term of office.