No matter who wins the U.S. presidential election, there’s a chance the NAFTA trade deal will go down the tubes.

A lot of American voters seem to have bought into the narrative that unfettered commercial exchange between Mexico, the United States and Canada is killing the nation’s job market and wreaking havoc on the economy.

Leading economists have a very different and broader perspective on the issue. They look beyond the hard numbers of the trade deficit, to reflect on the mutual benefits for the North American trade partners. 

The experts talk in mind-numbing dollar figures and percentages. Since I’m a dimwit on anything related finances, I won’t get into weeds here. There’s a wealth of information on the Internet for those who choose to do so. 

Simplified statistical numbers anyone can understand are that Mexico now ranks as the second most important destination for U.S. exports and the flow of goods from to here has jumped by 325 percent since 1994. 

So what’s been on my mind of late are the local implications of scrapping NAFTA.  

I’m among the privileged few who settled at lakeside long before the trilateral deal went into effect.   I can recall the simplicity of grocery shopping back then when your choices for filling the bread box boiled down to Bimbo white, Bimbo beige and fresh bollilo from the neighborhood bakery. 

Expats harbored deep yearnings for products that couldn’t be found on the shelves of Mom and Pop stores or the grubby small-scale supermarket. When friends headed off to the border, we’d fork out a stash of dollar bills and beg them to bring back American treats from the other side. A jar of peanut butter, a couple of Snicker bars, a bottle of bourbon were standard items on my list.

Life here changed radically after NAFTA. A flood of imported merchandise swept in from the north and other points across the globe. 

After that, the demographic dynamics changed as well. Folks who wouldn’t have been able to tolerate the hardship of living without familiar consumer goods and creature comforts found paradise on Lake Chapala’s shores.

Take a stroll down the aisle of SuperLake and you might begin to worry about the reverse course that looms on the horizon. Think bye-bye to the stuffing mix, gravy-maker and fresh cranberries you’ll need for Thanksgiving and Christmas dinner. Adios to the array of the organic, gluten-free and exotic Asian products you’re accustomed to shoving into the shopping cart. Adieu to Betty Crocker cake and cookie mixes and Hamburger Helper if that’s the stuff you thrive on. 

Scratch NAFTA and all your favorite imports labeled in English could vanish or at best, bear unimaginably astronomical price tags.  The business strip in San Antonio could turn into a ghost town.  Even the Costco and Starbucks outlets in Guadalajara might be forced to fold.

Are we facing a potential gringo exodus of Biblical proportions? And looking on the other side, will those who flee have to give up a taste for Corona beer?  Say it ain’t so!