At a Trumpless debate of Republican presidential hopefuls in Milwaukee on August 23, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said he would declare a national emergency and send troops to the southern border, and even into Mexico, on “day one” of his presidency.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador responded by saying the sound bite was pure electioneering and a reflection of how much DeSantis has fallen in the polls since he began his campaign (Trump leads DeSantis by 40 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed Friday, August 25).
“Always in an election season, they talk about intervening in Mexico’s affairs, not respecting our sovereignty, insulting us. We mustn’t take them very seriously,” the president said.
Lopez Obrador noted that the Florida governor launched his bid for the White House with an anti-immigrant strategy and it has not gone well for him. “Instead of rectifying it, he continues on the same line … and he continues to sink.”
AMLO accused DeSantis of being “more anti-immigrant” than former U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he has mostly refused to admonish for his broadsides towards Mexico, even most recently when it was revealed that in 2020 Trump reportedly asked Defense Secretary Mark Esper twice if the U.S. military could “shoot missiles into Mexico to destroy the drug labs.”
The idea of using military force in Mexico will be a recurring theme in the 2024 campaign on the Republican side.
A recent measure introduced in Congress by Republicans would designate Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and authorize the use of military action against them. Introducing the bill in March, Senator Lindsay Graham justified the move while slamming Lopez Obrador: “You’re allowing safe havens for these groups to operate without impunity because what you’re doing is not working.”
At that time, AMLO responded by saying Graham was “divorced from reality,” and not seeing what was going on in his own country, pointing to the proliferation of weapons, the arming of teachers, and the widespread social breakdown that translates into more drug usage and opioid overdoses. He stressed that Mexico was cooperating with U.S. authorities to fight the cartels and contain the fentanyl scourge, but said force wasn’t the only way to resolve the problem. He said critics may laugh at his “hugs not bullets” strategy, but that similar policies introduced during his spell as Mexico City’s mayor brought down crime levels in the capital. He also rebuked the United States for its “double standards” regarding drugs such as marijuana, which has been legalized for recreational use in 21 states.
Any incursion into its territory without consent would be considered an act of war by Mexico, although this country is unlikely to respond by declaring war on the United States, U.S. military experts seem to agree. The Mexican government would most likely terminate all diplomatic channels and resort to rulings in international tribunals as a response.
Restricting U.S. visitors and tourists to Mexico (a major source of revenue), except for diplomats, would be an almost unthinkable last resort, as would be expelling all U.S. residents in the country.