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An ancient method to predict the year’s weather

While many lakesiders may be wondering what’s going on with the weather in the world’s best climate, some older locals still follow the traditions of their ancestors, scanning the landscape for signs of weather patterns that will prevail throughout the year.

This ancient method of weather forecasting is known as Las Cabañuelas. It involves observing the weather every day throughout January, with each day’s weather corresponding to a specific month of the year.

The first 12 days of January provide predictions for each month from January to December, in a cycle called las cabañuelas de ida (going forward). The next 12 days, from January 13 to 24, are las cabañuelas de vuelta (going backward), offering forecasts from December back to January.

For example, the rainy weather on January 10 suggests that we can expect rain next October. The sunny skies on January 13 indicate clear weather and warmth in December, as the calendar turns backward.

The monthly forecasts continue from January 25 to 30. During these days, the first 12 hours of each day (midnight to noon) predict the weather for that month, while the hours from noon to midnight refer to the following month. For instance, January 26, from noon to midnight, will predict the weather for February, and the day’s final hours will offer a forecast for March and April.

It’s a lot of number crunching, but other factors also play a role in these weather predictions. Practitioners of Las Cabañuelas also observe the shape of clouds, wind strength and direction, conditions like fog, dew, and hail, and even animal behavior in their surroundings.

Historically, this system has been a valuable tool for those engaged in seasonal agriculture. In contrast, modern urban dwellers are more likely to tune in to the Weather Channel for a ten-day forecast.

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