Expectations of toned-down rhetoric originating from the White House in the coming months (as President Trump’s reset Tuesday suggests) could switch the front-page emphasis in Mexico from bilateral to domestic issues – in particular the crucial upcoming election in the Estado de Mexico, this country’s most populous state.
The importance for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) of the bellwether June 4 gubernatorial election in this state cannot be underestimated. Estado de Mexico encircles a large part of Mexico City and has backed the PRI faithfully for the past 80 years. Notably, Enrique Peña Nieto, the current president of Mexico, is a former governor.
Defeat for the PRI would be unimaginable, says renowned columnist Jorge Zepeda, the former editor of Siglo 21, a breakthrough Guadalajara daily in the 1990s. The PRI’s reach in the Estado de Mexico has been cultivated over decades and extends into every public institution and corner of bureaucratic life, he explains, Defeat would mean that the “public’s repudiation” for Peña Nieto would have more influence on the outcome than the “powerful machinery of state,” Zepeda says.
The two major candidates who will challenge the PRI are basically selected and, interestingly, both are women. This fact is significant, given that Estado de Mexico has gained notoriety over the past decade for its high number of murders of women (femicides), as well as sexual assaults, amid accusations of cover-ups by corrupt authorities. A state-wide day of action against sexual violence was held in April of last year, garnering plenty of international attention.
The Estado de Mexico will also provide a useful indicator as to the current strengths of the country’s two leading opposition parties of the moment: the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the left-wing Morena party, led by veteran political firebrand Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a two-time presidential candidate and eternal bane of the PRI.
Both PAN and Morena have surged in the opinion polls as scandal after scandal rocked Peña Nieto’s presidency, causing his popularity rating to drop to a record low of 17 percent. And as Trump’s threats against Mexico take ona more real aspect, Lopez Obrador’s populist, nationalist and protectionist oratory gains broader appeal among Mexicans who have traditionally feared radical politicians.
Victory for Morena’s expected candidate, Delfina Gomez, a federal legislator and former mayor of Texcoco, would alter the entire political map, and send shock waves throughout the region by opening up the strong possibility of a third – and potentially successful – run at the presidency by the leftist Lopez Obrador next year.
Meanwhile, the PAN leadership has decided to pin their hopes on former Education Secretary Josefina Vázquez Mota, the party’s loosing candidate in the 2012 presidential election, when she finished third behind Peña Nieto and Lopez Obrador with only 25 percent of the vote. Despite her poor showing in that election in Estado de Mexico, she has fared
positively in early opinion polls indicating there is little to choose between PRI, PAN and Morena.
Whoever PRI selects as its candidate will face a fierce battle against two highly motivated women, although he (no women are in the running for the PRI) will be able to count on the state’s relatively benign media, which historically is not noted for its tough journalism or criticism of the ruling party.
Many political analysts see the possibility of a serious backfire should the PRI hierarchy choose its favored contender – federal legislator Alfredo del Mazo Maza. A cousin of Peña Nieto and member of his inner political circle, he is also the son of former Estado de Mexico governor Alfredo del Mazo Gonzalez, a PRI “dinosaur” from a bygone era in the eyes of many Mexicans. Even with the full support of the party machinery, Alfredo del Mazo Mazo’s close connections and parentage to the unpopular president could contribute to his ultimate downfall.
One unknown factor that might affect the result in the Estado de Mexico election is the presence of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the former standard bearer for the Mexican left that has fallen behind Morena in the national pecking order of late. A PRD candidate picking up even a modest four to five percent of the vote – probably at the expense of the PRI or Morena – is likely to have a significant impact on the outcome.