Distinguished Mexican academic and award-winning media commentator Leo Zuckerman provided a well-rounded analysis of Mexico’s economy to an attentive crowd of lakeside expats attending a March 20 conference sponsored by the banking and investment outfit Grupo Financiero Multiva.
Speaking in fluent English, Zuckerman opened his presentation “Economic and Political Perspectives on Mexico in 2013” with an upbeat message on the country’s current status, echoing widespread opinion that it is poised to play a dominant role as the 21st century progresses.
“Today Mexico is growing, creating good jobs and enjoying a low rate of inflation. Few countries can say that,” Zuckerman noted. He sees excellent prospects for positive trends continuing through 2013-2014 and beyond. He predicts that Mexico will become the most important exporter to the United States by 2018, outshining China.Marking the difference between Zuckerman’s speech and boilerplate investment house talks heard in the past was his ample discussion of the country’s economic weaknesses and the significant side issues of politics and security.
“Our biggest problem is on the domestic end because Mexico has a very closed economy,” he said. Reflecting on the limitations for private investment in big business here, he cited some startling numbers. Mexico attracted 12.5 billion dollars from foreign investors last year. In contrast, Mexican investors plunged more than double that amount in interests abroad.
Turning to the realm of politics, Zuckerman qualified President Enrique Peña Nieto as a “reformer” who is determined to transform the country. Working in Peña’s favor is the newly instated preferred presidential initiative than enables him to present two fast-tracks bills at the start of each biannual legislative session. But the big obstacle is that major reforms can only be achieved by amending the nation’s constitution. Since no political party holds a sufficient majority to push that kind of initiative through the Chamber of Deputies and the senate, deep changes are likely to get watered down in bargaining for consensus.
Zuckerman closed with a sobering assessment of the violent atmosphere that emerged from former President Calderon’s six-year war on powerful drug cartels. He believes Peña Nieto will take a different approach by playing down troubling news and focusing law enforcement action against the most violent organized crime groups.