The military operation that killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes — ”El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel — represents the biggest blow dealt to drug trafficking in Mexico’s recent history and the first major strike against the CJNG by the current administration. But it has also plunged the country into an uncertain scenario.
The decision by federal authorities to move against El Mencho provoked a violent retaliation on a scale not seen before in Jalisco. The message from the CJNG was clear: You may have downed our leader, but we are still powerful, and we are not going anywhere.
This defiance and the targeting of federal officers during the mayhem that enveloped Mexico across 20 states portends a rocky ride over the coming months, as the various criminal groups that operate under the CJNG umbrella will battle for territorial advantage.
“History tells us that when the head of such a large cartel falls, smaller ones will emerge,” said analyst José Luis Sabau (perpetuo.substack.com). “Many will fight among themselves; many will be caught in the crossfire. We don’t know what fractures are coming or which kingpins will emerge, but if there’s one thing we can learn from our dismal past, it’s that they will emerge.”
President Claudia Sheinbaum has put down a marker with this operation, although she denies she is returning to the largely failed military policies of former President Felipe Calderón. What is true is that her predecessor’s “hugs not bullets” approach toward criminals has been tossed out the window for good.
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